資產質量大幅改善，才是樂信(LX.US)利潤增長的核心驅動力
近期金融科技公司2025年Q1財報都已陸續發佈，吸引市場廣泛關注。其中，樂信Q1營收31億元，和去年同期表現幾乎持平；盈利讓人眼前一亮，利潤（Non-GAAP EBIT）5.8億元，同比增長104.7%。
資本市場上，財報是企業價值的晴雨表，也是投資者預期的風向標。不同的行業特徵，往往需要採用不同的評判體系，這有利於我們準確把握企業的真實價值。
以處在金融行業的樂信為例，比如收入，很多人只看到了營收環比好像沒有增長。但其實，透過表象看本質，如果要看他的核心業務，應該重點關注的是金融淨收入，而不是營收，因為樂信收入構成比較多，還有電商等業務。
我們關注核心，看他的金融淨收入，也就是信貸服務收入（Credit facilitation service income）和科技賦能收入（Tech-empowerment service income)總和，減去各項成本即可。
信貸服務收入、科技賦能收入兩項（圖中的紅色區域），25Q1合計是28.157億元；
成本則相對複雜些（圖中的綠色區域），包括資金成本（Funding cost）、信貸成本（三個Provision科目加上Changes in fair value of financial guarantee derivatives and loans at fair value），25Q1合計是9.9738億元。
兩項相減，就是核心業務金融淨收入，18.18億元。同樣的算法，24Q4這一數據是17.21億元，也就是説盡管看上去總體營收下降，但核心的金融淨收入還在增加，環比增加了0.97億元。
大家可不要小看這個增長。繼續往下深究，這部分收入增長的核心原因是公司資產質量改善帶來的信貸成本的降低，體現在數據上，環比24年四季度，25Q1新增資產FPD7（首次逾期7天發生在第一期，是一個早期風險指標）下降約5%，全量資產入催率下降約11%，全量資產90+不良率下降9%。
資產質量的好轉，自然帶動公司盈利能力提升。25Q1 GAAP淨利潤達4.3億元，環比增長18.6%，同比增長113.4%。同樣，資產質量好轉，也帶動存量資產壞賬及壞賬補提顯著減少。這也解釋了為什麼樂信Q1整體撥備有所減少。但實際上，樂信的撥備覆蓋率並沒有因此減少，撥備實際上相比上個季度還要充足，大盤撥備覆蓋率由24Q4的255%上升至25Q1的268%。
總的來説，樂信的利潤增長主要還是靠風險成本持續下降。過去幾個季度，隨着風險改善，Take rate（淨利潤/平均在貸）已經從24Q1的0.66%一路上揚到25Q1的1.58%。相信只要保持風險下降的趨勢，業績還有很大的上升空間。這塊後面可以持續關注。
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