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《大行》美銀升港交所(00388.HK)目標價至440元 重申「買入」評級
美銀證券發表研究報告,指港交所(00388.HK)近日股價處約400港元,爲過去三年最高水平,基於該行新預估的2025年每股盈利預測12.49港元,相當於2025年預估市盈率32倍。該行指,因2025年平均每日成交額(ADT)提高至2,200億港元。將港交所2025至2026年的盈利預測上調2%至4%,目標價上調8%,從398.2元上調至440元,重申「買入」評級。 該行認爲,香港的IPO市場今年可能迎來強勁復甦。 其IPO管道中有超過120宗IPO,包括來自A股市場的相當數量的公司,今年至今的平均每日成交額保持在2,400億港元以上。成交額和IPO推動盈利和市場情緒,暗示未來6至12個月存在上行風險。 美銀證券表示,來自地緣政治緊張的自上而下風險仍是主要下行風險。這些風險包括海外資金流出,以及因中國宏觀經濟疲弱(受關稅和其他問題影響)而導致的情緒惡化等。與市場普遍認爲美國ADR退市並在香港重新上市可能帶來正面影響(因香港市場資本化和成交額將增加)的看法相反。認爲若發生ADR退市,香港可能面臨金融脫鉤的風險增加,資金外流和外匯問題的擔憂可能對港交所及整個市場產生負面影響。
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