《大行》大和降拼多多(PDD.US)目標價至145美元 重申「買入」評級
大和發表研究報告指出,考慮到拼多多(PDD.US)的收入前景趨嚴及持續高投入對淨利潤率的影響,將其目標價由180美元下調至145美元,並下調其2025至2027年的每股盈利預測32%至36%,重申「買入」評級,認為主要下行風險為地緣政治緊張局勢加劇。
該行認為,拼多多今年首季業績低於市場預期,收入較預期低8%,線上營銷收入按年增長15%(較2024 年第四季增長17%放緩),佣金率按年下降0.2個百分點至4.6%。由於履約費用及支付處理費增加,毛利率按年下降5個百分點;非公認會計準則(non-GAAP)經營利潤率為19.1%,相對於去年首季為32.9%。
展望未來,該行認為拼多多的中國境內銷售和營銷費用將維持高企,以與現有競爭對手競爭,但隨著拼多多將部分資源從美國Temu業務轉向歐洲,預計自4月起Temu在美投入支出削減,將部分抵銷有關的成本壓力。
該行指,拼多多目前股價回調為長期佈局提供買入機會,並認為拼多多仍是該行所覆蓋範圍內估值最低的股票之一,其2025至2027年的盈利年均複合增長率達21.8%,增速高於同業,且具備海外業務敞口。但由於商業環境存在不確定性,預期拼多多股價短期可能波動。
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