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《大行》美銀證券引述騰訊(00700.HK)指多款AI產品需數季才能開始變現 但指業務較同行有顯著變現潛力
阿思達克 05-29 10:56
美銀證券發表報告表示,騰訊(00700.HK)舉行了投者會議分享了投資人工借能產品的進程,騰訊管理層指多款AI產品已進入後推出階段,但仍需數季才能開始變現。例如:1)元寶應用已具備一定產品市場契合度,進入推出階段;2)QQ瀏覽器近期升級為公開的AI瀏覽器;3)微信AI體驗則處於產品市場契合的早期階段。未來數季後,產品將逐一開始變現。騰訊通過現有業務的營運槓桿為AI投資提供資金。短期內成本影響主要來自折舊。 由於騰訊優先將GPU用於內部需求,利潤將在GPU生命週期後期顯現。騰訊指能靈活利用GPU,根據內外部需求及高低需求場景調整使用,充分發揮其經濟生命週期。該行略微調整對騰訊2025年利潤預測1%,因為預計第二至第四季度收入增長與調整後營運利潤增長的差距將比第一季度縮小。該行維持騰訊目標價631元,重申AI潛力支持「買入」評級。 騰訊指AI在多方面改善遊戲體驗,特別是新玩家入門、玩家指導、玩家互動、防作弊、遊戲公平性與平衡,這些均有助於提升用戶留存。根據QuestMobile數據,騰訊主要手遊的30天留存率呈上升趨勢。 商業服務方面,騰訊商業服務部門有四個結構性驅動力:1)小商店佣金;2)CRM(客戶關係管理)服務及企業微信軟件;3)安全、實時通信、數據庫解決方案;4)GPU租賃。管理層持續看好中國企業服務的長期潛力,但增長路徑不僅限於基礎設施服務,還包括軟件服務。在軟件層面:1)競爭較不激烈,利潤率更高;2)騰訊產品更具競爭力。企業微信軟件獲得良好企業採用率,並可交叉銷售騰訊的平台及基礎設施服務。 騰訊管理層表示,相較於同行,騰訊業務有顯著的變現潛力,正在逐步提升貨幣化:1)通過流量增長、廣告點擊率提升及定期增加廣告負載來增加廣告收入;2)通過提供更高價值的虛擬物品提升遊戲收入;3)在金融科技方面,公司以可控方式擴大貸款業務。 就小商店的GMV快速增長,並逐步深化與微信生態內其他活動的聯繫。公司團隊正逐一克服瓶頸,指有多個成功的電商模板可供借鑒,以及眾多服務提供商。在變現潛力方面:除了提高抽佣率及更多閉環交易廣告外,小商店還可通過SKU(即存貨單位)級別的交易信息提升廣告定向精準度。
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