瑞銀:恆指年底目標24,500點 料HIBOR將稍微回升
瑞銀投資銀行香港策略師陳志立指,今年年初Deepseek推出,令科技股帶動港股上升。雖然貿易戰令港股表現稍為回落,但現時已恢復,IPO數量亦有增加,港股整體利潤有提升,基本面較宏觀經濟好;該行對港股持審慎樂觀態度,今年底恆指目標24,500點。
他表示,目前港股估值位處歷史平均水平,今年較看好科技股和高股息、防守性高的基建及銀行股,而貿易戰帶來的不穩定性依然持續,需要繼續觀察。
HIBOR方面,陳志立指跌勢對香港整體經濟有利,尤其是股市及地產行業,相信過去幾年市民定存的資金會流向其他風險資產。但他認為HIBOR不會持續位於目前低位,料將回升至2%至2.5%水平;而HIBOR較低亦將對銀行利潤構成壓力,但主要集中在香港銀行而非內銀;該行對銀行板塊持中性看法。
瑞銀新興市場及亞洲股票策略主管Sunil Tirumalai指,該行在新興市場中較看好中國股市,包括A股及H股,認為整體盈利有增長,估值亦相對較低。而東南亞股市包括印度、泰國及馬來西亞等,認為當地市場的敞口較多,受貿易戰影響較小,防守性高。
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