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《大行》星展降聯想集團(00992.HK)目標價至15元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 05-27 10:20
星展銀行發表報告指,因持續美國關稅相關不確定性可能對高端市場的消費情緒產生負面影響,該行下調聯想集團(00992.HK)2026及2027財年盈利預測各13.5%及13.6%。以及下調2026財年第三季度每股盈利(EPS),並將該公司目標價由17.2元下調至15元,相當於預測市盈率13倍,維持「買入」評級。 該行認為,儘管面臨關稅影響,但聯想集團2025年升級周期持續,原因是該公司受惠於2025年換機周期,驅動力來自Windows 11系統遷移及強勁的AI PC產品線。關鍵機型包括ThinkPad、Yoga及IdeaPad已於 2025年初推出,鞏固聯想的競爭優勢。 此外,公司已將深度求索 AI(DeepSeek AI)整合至「小天」智能助手,強化其文本理解、代碼生成及推理能力。該行相信與深度求索的進一步合作將增強聯想的 AI生態系統。預計聯想在2026至2027財年盈利將分別增長25.5%、26.7%,驅動因素包括:1)商用個人電腦換機周期受規格升級支持,受益於AI PC規格標準化及生成式AI應用率提升;2)服務業務規模擴大帶動經營邊際率改善。 該行認為,聯想集團2025財年(截至今年3月底止財年)第四財季營收按年增長22.8%至170億美元,較市場共識高出8%。營業利潤率按年下降1.5個百分點至2%(2024財年同期為3.7%)。淨利潤按年下滑64%至9,000萬美元。經調整淨利潤(排除認股權證公允價值損失及零息債券名義利息)按年增長25%至2.78億美元,符合市場預期。 考慮到消費者情緒持續受關稅不確定性負面影響,採用速度放緩,該行下修預測,預計聯想AI的PC出貨量在2026財年及2027財年仍將分別強勁增長93%及52%(原預測為159%及63%),佔總PC出貨量的比例分別為37%及47%。 該行預計商用個人電腦換機需求將保持相對無彈性,伺服器業務盈利能力亦將持續改善。(hc/W)~
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