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高盛預期未來十二個月人民幣兑美元將升至7,列出潛在跑贏的港股名單
高盛經濟師預期人民幣兑美元匯價將於三個月、六個月及十二個月,達至7.2、7.1及7,意志着未來十二個月有3%升值空間。該行披露人民幣升值潛在跑贏的港股名單,包括:萬國數據、紫金礦業、中國金茂、東嶽集團、南方航空、百度集團、中國飛鶴及騰訊控股。這些企業需符合的條件包括:1)市值與流動性:市值超過20億美元,日均成交額(ADVT)超過500萬美元;2)行業與財務特性下,依賴美元進口成本的行業,包括航空、(石油)化工、建築、食品主食及旅遊相關行業;或美元債務佔比超過20%;3)海外收入敞口:海外收入佔比低於30%;4)外匯損益歷史:2024年人民幣貶值期間未產生外匯收益;5)匯率相關性:與匯率變動的回報相關性排名靠後。
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