《大行》大摩:快手(01024.HK)首季業績略勝預期 可靈收入指引提升
摩根士丹利發表報告,快手-W(01024.HK)今年首季度收入按年增長10%至180億元人民幣,較該行預測高1%。經調整淨利潤為46億元人民幣,超預期2%。月活躍用戶(MAU)、日活躍用戶(DAU)及用戶使用時長均呈健康趨勢,符合快手目標,將該股目標價定在60元,評級「與大市同步」。
大摩表示,按業務板塊劃分,快手首季直播收入按年增長14%,廣告收入按年增長8%,其他服務收入按年增長15%(電商交易額(GMV)按年增長15%,可靈(Kling)收入達1.5億元人民幣)。快手海外業務收入增長33%,且首次實現經營盈利。
該行認為,快手預計今年第2季度收入按年增長11.5%(與市場共識一致),其中廣告收入增長12%(較第1季度加速,但仍低於全年14%的目標),直播收入增長5%,其他收入增長20%,主要受電商GMV增長14至15%、佣金率小幅提升及可靈快速增長推動。
該行指,根據管理層仍對2025年下半年廣告增速回升至17%至19%區間(high teens)充滿信心。預計2025年第2季度毛利率(GPM)按年基本持平,經調整淨利潤51億元人民幣,亦與市場共識大體一致。可靈全年收入指引從6,000萬美元上調至1億美元,且存在上行風險。快手認為,憑藉其產品領先性(相比海外同業更具價格優勢),用戶規模將驅動大部分收入增長。
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