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《大行》高盛披露人民幣升值潛在跑贏港股名單 包括百度(09888.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)等
高盛經濟師預期人民幣兌美元屠匯價將於三個月、六個月及十二個月,達至7.20、7.10及7.00,意志著未來十二個月有3%升值空間。 該行披露人民幣升值潛在跑贏的中港上市企業名單,其中的港股包括:萬國數據-SW(09698.HK)、紫金礦業(02899.HK)、中國金茂(00817.HK)、東岳集團(00189.HK)、南方航空(01055.HK)、百度集團-SW(09888.HK)、中國飛鶴(06186.HK)及騰訊控股(00700.HK)。 這些企業需符合的條件包括:1)市值與流動性:市值超過20億美元,日均成交額(ADVT)超過500萬美元;2)行業與財務特性下,依賴美元進口成本的行業,包括航空、(石油)化工、建築、食品主食及旅遊相關行業;或美元債務佔比超過20%;3)海外收入敞口:海外收入佔比低於30%;4)外匯損益歷史:2024年人民幣貶值期間未產生外匯收益;5)匯率相關性:與匯率變動的回報相關性排名靠後。 此外,高盛同時列出人民幣升值時,可能跑輸大市的中港上市企業名單,其中的港股包括海爾智家(06690.HK)、中石油(00857.HK)、TCL電子(01070.HK)、聯邦制藥(03933.HK)、ASMPT(00522.HK)、裕元集團(00551.HK)、中國重汽(03808.HK)、申洲國際(02313.HK)及敏實集團(00425.HK)。 該行指,人民幣升值受壓企業篩選標準包括:1)市值與流動性:上市市值超過20億美元,日均成交額超過500萬美元;2)海外收入敞口:海外收入佔比超過30%;3)美元債務水平:美元債務佔比低於5%;4)外匯損益歷史:2024年人民幣貶值期間未產生外匯損失;5)匯率相關性:與匯率變動的回報相關性排名靠前。
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