《大行》大摩下調美團(03690.HK)目標價至160元 料第二季外賣業務營運利潤按年跌24%
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,料美團-W(03690.HK)第二季外賣交易量增長率將維持在10.5%,但由於行業競爭加劇,該行認爲營運利潤將有所下降,但仍對美團外賣業務的長期「護城河」充滿信心,但預計短期利潤率將面臨壓力,2025財年的新舉措施,尤其是巴西市場的擴張,將導致虧損擴大。
該行預計美團第二季度本地生活服務收入爲670億元人民幣,按年增長10%,營運利潤爲129億元人民幣,按年下降15%。自5月起,競爭因同行啓動「618」促銷活動而顯着加劇。該行預計第二季度外賣交易量將保持10.5%的按年增長,但營運利潤爲77億元人民幣,按年下降24%,因投資增加及去年同期基數較高。該行預計美團閃購因618促銷增加營銷支出而錄得季度虧損。美團優選預計將繼續保持穩健的總交易額增長,競爭環境趨於穩定,但因季節性因素,利潤率可能按季略有下降。
大摩將美團2025至2026年的收入預測下調2%,非國際財務報告準則淨利潤預測下調14%至19%。雖然對美團在消費者、騎手和商家網絡的競爭優勢充滿信心,但注意到短期利潤壓力及新項目虧損可能擴大。該行下調美團的目標價,由200元降至160元,是基於2026年預測市盈率17.5倍。
大摩認爲,內地最新關於保持平臺費用透明及健康的監管草案適用於所有互聯網平臺,相信美團在市場動態變化前的抽成率及補貼水平會保持穩定。雖然相關草案對美團無直接影響,但該行注意到競爭加劇可能帶來的外賣業務利潤率風險。
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