《大行》國泰君安國際:港股短期宜以紅利風格爲底倉 南向資金主要淨流入內銀
國泰君安國際發表港股策略報告,往前看,港股市場情緒及估值水平已修復,後續港股新的上漲動能仍在孕育之中。在國際局勢存在較大不確定性的情況下,建議投資者短期內以紅利風格作爲底倉,耐心等待觀望局勢明朗化。歷史經驗表明,電訊和公用事業等紅利行業能憑藉其穩定現金流和抗週期性,在不確定性較高的時期往往能夠跑贏大市。
另外,隨着局勢的逐步明朗,逢低切換風格,加大配置國內政策支持的方向是投資超額收益的關鍵,具體包括:1)自主可控和進口替代邏輯下,半導體、電子、互聯網和創新藥等或受益於特朗普關稅政策。2)在外需走弱、外部壓力加大的背景下,內需相關行業或受益於消費政策預期升溫。
國泰君安國際指,港股市場進入震盪行情,市場選擇「等待與觀望」的態度。從估值水平來看,目前恆指市盈率在近10年的歷史均值水平,略低於美國總統特朗普宣佈關稅前水平,反映在特朗普關稅衝擊後,港股市場的風險情緒已逐步修復。南向資金維持淨流入的趨勢,但淨流入速度有所放緩,也有「歇歇看看」的意思。在這段時期,南向資金最主要淨流入銀行行業,大金融板塊獲得南向資金淨流入規模超過165億港元。而資訊科技行業則遭遇南向資金的淨流出超過205億港元。
整體來看,內資再次擁抱高分紅的行業,選擇在科技行業獲利了結。內資之所以轉謹慎,在科技股獲利了結,一方面或與近期港股進入財報季有關。資本市場習慣性「買預期、賣現實」。另一方面,雖然中美雙方大幅降低關稅,但關稅前景仍然充滿不確定性。美國暫停90日的對華24%對等關稅仍然有可能捲土重來,而相比特朗普總統上臺以前,美國對華關稅已提高30%,實質性的影響仍需時間評估。
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