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《大行》花旗升東風集團股份(00489.HK)目標價至6.2元 評級「買入」
花旗銀行發表報告,微調東風集團股份(00489.HK)2025至2026年營收預測,分別下調3%和2%。同時將2025至2026年淨利潤率預測分別調整爲-1.8%、-2.0%(原預測爲-2.3%、-2.1%),淨虧損預測調整爲20.06億元人民幣、22.79億元人民幣(原預測爲虧損25.84億元人民幣、24.55億元人民幣)。按2025年每股帳面淨值17.93元人民幣,應用0.32倍目標市淨率計,該行將東風集團股份目標價從6港元上調至6.2港元,評級「買入」。 報告指,東風集團股份鑑於價格競爭加劇導致邊際壓力,瑞銀將2025至2026年合資公司預測下調5.4%、2.3%至6.73億元人民幣、6.76億元人民幣。 報告提及,東風集團股份今年首四個月累計乘用車、商用車、整車銷量分別達到全年目標23%、37%、24%。嵐圖(Voyah)方面,管理層指引2025年銷量目標爲20萬輛,若價格戰不升級,目標在2025年底實現盈虧平衡。今年4月嵐圖交付量爲3.6萬輛,按年增長77%,首四月完成全年目標18%。 出口方面,東風集團股份管理層指引2025年乘用車、商用車出口目標爲30.8萬輛、11.2萬輛,瑞銀認爲此目標較爲進取。 考慮到新能源汽車及燃油車競爭加劇下持續的價格壓力,瑞銀輕微下調2025至2026年營收預測分別3%、2%,同時基於2024財年毛利率按年提升2.9個百分點至12.8%(優於預期)的利好,將2025至2026年毛利率預測上調1.5、1個百分點至12.5%、12.5%。 受價格戰加劇影響,合資企業利潤壓力上升,瑞銀將2025、2026年合資投資收益預測下調5.4%、2.3%至6.73億、6.76億元人民幣。
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