郭思治:大市在動力支持下續上尋高位
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市自踏進3月份後,走勢相當反覆,恆指先由3日之高位23,405點急跌至4日之22,547點,其時恆指已正式跌穿10天線(現正位於23,497點左近),論形勢,大市此刻確已開始進入中期大幅急升後之回調中,但由於資金再度不斷湧入,故整個大市不但止跌回升,且恆指更於7日再度上升至24,669點,即在短短四個交易日內,恆指之上升波幅已有達2,122點,論形態,大市目前又再屬先低而後高,但需留意,一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於4個交易日之內,加上2,122點之波幅雖不算少,惟該不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,從而擴闊月內之波幅以滿足所需,同時亦能拉闊月內高低位之距離以符合慣性之要求,嚴格而言,只要先低後高之形態不變,大市再往上尋月內新高之機會該較大。
從走勢上看,大市自1月13日低位18,671點開始之中期升浪,由於已成功升越2024年10月7日之高位23,241點,亦已升越2023年1月27日之高位22,700點,故目前之上望目標該為2022年2月10日之高位25,050點,惟大市雖仍處續尋頂之趨勢,但有一點需留意,大市此潮中期升浪,恆指暫是由1月13日之低位18,671點升至3月7日之高位24,669點,即在短短七週內,累積之升幅已有達5,998點,單論升幅確已不算小,故一旦買盤之態度稍見保守,需慎防大市於高台又會再見反覆,故任何再冒高追入之投機性短炒行動,切記做好風險管理,同時亦不宜過急及過勇。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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