植耀輝:2024年推介股回顧(上)
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,或者是長假期臨近關係,港股近日投資氣氛淡靜了不少,外圍則反而仍有相當多話題,尤其是美股。道指出現自1978年以來最長連跌紀錄(10連跌),聯儲局議息後更單日大跌超過1,100點。不過跌勢主要集中於權重股聯合醫療(UNH.US)身上,期內單一股份已拖累道指下跌超過668點或24.8%;此外其實現時道指亦只從歷史高位計回調約6%而已,故無須太過擔心。不過始終長假期在即,加上年內累升不少,因此「抖抖氣」亦十分合理。
連續兩個星期剖析了港股及美股明年展望,本週則進入個股回顧及最新策略部署。先談愛股中遠國際(00517.HK)。其股價表現相當有驚喜,年內累積升幅達到六成,計及股息之回報更高達七成。能有如此回報主要是業績對板之餘亦維持100%派息,上半年每股股息已達到0.265元,假設下半年業績與上半年相若,現價計息率將超過12釐。由於內地造船訂單仍持續增加,可以預期對中遠塗料業務持續有正面貢獻。當然亦非全無隱憂,美國聯儲局若進一步減息將影響利息收入(集團持有逾60億元淨現金),此外人民幣匯價若大幅貶值亦會對其未來派送有一定影響。筆者將維持現有部署,即待股價升至4.6元以上分段減持最多50%持股,餘下則續作長線持有。
至於IGG(00799.HK)雖不算核心持股,年內股價累升只得21%,不過業績表現依然有一定憧憬。事實上,集團上半年成功虧轉盈,當時股價便一度衝高至4.85元,距離筆者初步目標價5元僅一步之遙,只是其後股價「不爭氣」,回落至現時4元以下。由於旗下兩款遊戲Doomsday及Viking Rise收入穩入上升,加上App業務快速增長,相信下半年收入及盈利狀況有望優於上半年。加上集團在4元以下持續進行回購,中期業績後亦曾有高管增持,繼續以5元作中期目標。
至於年內其他持股方面,中海油(00883.HK)在第三季已全數減持,會待明年初OPEC+就減產有最終定案以及集團未來派息政策明朗化後再檢視;高鑫零售(06808.HK)則原先憧憬其私有化,但在集團宣佈獲第三方有意洽購後已沽出大部分持股獲利,餘下小量貨以觀察會否有其它後着。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人士,持有中遠國際、IGG及高鑫零售股份)~
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