郭思治:大市稍陷反覆不明之形態中
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,踏進新的一年,不妨先稍作回顧,去年大市確已打破連續四年先高後低之弱態,即技術上已漸擺脫不斷反覆尋底之趨勢,資料如下:2020年大市在先高後低之弱態主導下,年內之下跌波幅爲8,035點,到2021年,大市之形態仍屬先高後低,年內之下跌波幅爲8,518點,再到2022年,大市之形態亦屬先高後低,年內之下跌波幅達10,453點,最後到2023年,大市同樣在先高後低之下,年內大市之下跌波幅爲8,728點,經過連續四年之跌市後,去年大市終見技術上之突破,2024年大市屬先低而後高,恆指是由1月22日之低位14,794點升至10月7日之高位23,241點,即年內之升幅爲8,447點,但大市雖見技術上突破,惟由於實體經濟仍持續不明及偏弱,故資金之入市態度相當保守,在動力不足之下,大市之升勢當不能持續,且在零碎回吐沽壓主導下,大市卒反覆回調至11月26之低位19,054點,即相對升幅爲8,447點計,大市已回調升幅之49.5%,而直到目前一刻止計,大市暫仍持續整固於回調低位附近,只是情況尚不算太差,至低限度,大市雖稍見回落,惟恆指只是反覆於去年波幅之上半段,但如19,054點之支持一旦有失,則大市將初呈浪低於浪之弱態。
從技術上看,大市經過近日之一輪急跌後,由於恆指已相繼跌穿50天線(約在19,993點左近),20天線(約在19,940點左近)及10天線(約在19,888點左近),故大市之走勢已明顯轉弱,而目前之支持亦已順勢下移至100天線(約在19,390點左近),此防線之支持相當關鍵,因一旦有失,大市可能會進一步下試去年11月26日之低位19,054點。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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