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郭家耀:憂關稅戰升溫港股料反覆 關注國有六大行注資攤薄效應
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股上週五(2月28日)走勢向好,美國最新通脹數據放緩,市場憧憬減息空間增多,利好大市表現,三大指數均錄得升幅收市。美元走勢向好,美國十年期債息回落至4.2釐水平,金價及油價表現偏軟。港股預託證券變動不大,預料大市早段缺乏方向。 內地股市上週五明顯下滑,滬綜指低開低走,收市下跌2%,滬深兩市成交額亦略爲縮減。 港股連升多日後出現回吐,市場憂慮關稅措施影響企業盈利表現,指數失守23,000點關口,大市成交維持四千億水平。市場關注關稅措施實施情況,市況出現反覆,預料指數將於22,500至23,500點水平波動。 另國家金融監督管理總局去年透露,計劃對6間大型銀行增加核心一級資本。據報,有關部門計劃在數個月內,率先向包括農行(01288.HK)和交行(03328.HK)在內的首批銀行注資,以提升其資本實力,涉資最少4,000億元人民幣。報道指出,內地有關部門向內銀投放資金,以提升其核心一級資本水平的行動,最快在6月底完成,各銀行獲注資的實際金額仍在研究之中,而六大國有行將合共獲一萬億元資本。參考內銀去年第三季度報告,農行和交行的核心一級資本充足率分別爲11.42%和10.29%,建行(00939.HK)、工行(01398.HK)和中行(03988.HK)高於12%,郵儲行(01658.HK)則爲最低的9.42%。市場關注注資規模帶來的攤薄效應,會否影響派息水平,從而令估值受壓。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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