郭思治:大市連續四日處反覆不明之中
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,3月大市已到尾聲,而直到目前一刻止計,形態上該屬先低而後高,恆指是由4日之低位22,547點升至19日之高位24,874點,即月內之波幅爲2,327點,由於2,327點之波幅已不算小,該可滿足月內之所需,加上本月高低位之距離亦已符合慣性之要求,故大市自3月19日高位24,874點開始,技術上已進入中期大幅急升後之正常回吐及消化中,而從技術上看,恆指自今年1月13日低位18,671點開始之中期上升,至3月19日高位24,874點止計,在短短9周內,累積之升幅已達6,203點,論升幅確實不算小,故出現回吐乃正常現象,而其後大市亦一度反覆回落至28日之低位23,254點方漸見喘定,即恆指共回調1,620點或中期升幅6,203點之26%,單從技術上看,大市只屬大幅急升後之正常回吐而已。
從技術上看,3月大市屬先升後反覆,而月中曾兩度出現明顯反覆,第一次恆指是由7日之高位24,669點跌至13日之低位23,198點,即恆指共回調1471點,第二次恆指是由19日之高位24,874點跌至28日之低位23,254點,即恆指共回調1,620點,從走勢上看,兩次之回調均差不多,但技術上卻有分別,首次恆指只是稍跌穿10天線(現約在23,931點左近),但卻未有觸及20天線(現約在23,802點左近),但第二次之回調,恆指已相繼跌穿10天線及20天線,即是說,大市之反覆不但已進一步明顯,且技術上已漸呈中期大幅上升後之明顯回吐及消化中。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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