植耀輝:港股仍有望挑戰23,800點
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,由美國總統特朗普「攪局」之關稅風暴,隨着即將與越來越多國家達成協議而令投資者暫鬆一口氣,當中與中國快速達成共識並發表聯合聲明更有驚喜,消息當日(12日)刺激港股大升接近700點。往後日子只要特朗普「慎言」,影響金融市場之變數亦有望減少,投資者亦樂見於此矣。
不過回想當日(4月3日)特朗普出招而觸發之環球市場動盪,其實亦有甚多地方值得大家作「賽後檢討」。4月7日市況相當慘烈,恆指全日大跌3,021點,投資者無不被跌勢嚇倒,部分有意沽貨離場亦屬情理之中。但筆者當刻反而認爲既然最壞情況已出現,故不應自亂陣腳在此情況下沽貨,及後亦不斷反覆研究關稅所帶來之各種情況,以此判斷持有個股之部署。最終亦依從自己制定之一系列投資策略,低位增持部分愛股股份(見4月11日文章)。期間亦承擔一定心理壓力,尤其是加註後股價未見太大起色。只是筆者相信只要關稅戰出現轉機,股市以至個股亦必然會有反彈。而以事態最新發展來看,今次筆者確押中注了。所以部分股份即使仍未能升越大跌市當日水平,但低位溝貨後現時賬面上已有利潤。不過筆者亦不急於減磅,皆因除非基本面或業績表現走樣,否則仍會視作長線持有。今次確是一次寶貴經驗,同時亦加強筆者未來對宏觀局勢/個股分析的信心。
至於港股短期表現,雖然昨日大市下跌,不過筆者仍抱較樂觀看法,關稅戰緊張狀況稍見緩和是最大主因,另外環球投資氣氛改善亦對港股有利;加上執筆之時包括騰訊(00700.HK)在內之科企業績「對辦」,對港股後市有望帶來一定支持,相信恆指有望在本月挑戰23,800-24,000點水平。不過要再作突破則信心暫時一般,即使北水掃貨仍有憧憬,惟投資者關注點亦將轉移至聚焦內地經濟,特別是消費及樓市最新數據上。另較令筆者在意的是中美關稅消息對A股未見帶來沖喜,在相關情況未見改善下,恆指要出現重大突破還須一點耐性矣!
(筆者並未持有相關股份)~
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