郭家耀:憂美收緊投資中國科技行業限制 港股料23,500阻力較大
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股週二(25日)個別發展,市場憂慮關稅措施影響經濟表現,科技股表現受壓,標普500指數及納指連續第四個交易日下跌,道指則表現向好,三大指數收市升跌不一。美元走勢向下,美國十年期債息下滑至4.29釐水平,金價及油價亦出現調整。港股預託證券表現靠穩,預料大市早段變動不大。
內地股市昨日低收,滬綜指低開低走,收市下跌0.8%,滬深兩市成交額繼續活躍。
港股高位表現反覆,市場憂慮美國收緊資金投資中國科技行業,拖累大市大幅低開,其後跌幅有所收窄,整體成交保持活躍。外圍走勢轉弱,加上關稅政策構成不明朗,預料指數短期暫難進一步突破,23,500點的阻力較大,下方支持在22,500點水平。
另國家金監總局日前公佈去年全年商業銀行累計實現淨利潤2.3萬億元人民幣,按年下降約4%。去年第四季末,商業銀行不良貸款餘額3.3萬億元人民幣,較上季末減少977億元人民幣;商業銀行不良貸款率1.5%,較上季末下降0.05個百分點。同時,去年第四季末,商業銀行貸款損失準備餘額爲6.9萬億元人民幣,較上季末減少1,486億元人民幣;撥備覆蓋率爲211.19%,較上季末上升1.71個百分點;貸款撥備率爲3.18%,較上季末下降0.09個百分點。另外,去年第四季商業銀行淨息差爲1.52%,較第三季下降1個基點,較2023年第四季的1.69%則下降17個基點。由於宏觀經濟下行壓力持續,降息效應影響下,銀行業盈利受壓,屬預期之內。市場關注經濟復甦動力,以及行業派息能力會否受盈利表現影響。考慮到內銀股的派息吸引力仍高,後市展望仍穩定。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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