郭思治:大市在反覆中再度明顯急跌
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(25日)再明顯受壓,恆指昨早市先低開262點至23,643點,其後曾略爲後抽至23,747點,但由於買盤不繼,加上沽壓又不斷涌現,故整個大市卒開始掉頭回落,恆指更一度大幅急跌584點至23,321點方漸見喘定,並略作技術性後抽,惟在濃厚之觀望氣氛下,由於買盤保守,故恆指只是略爲回升至23,500點左右已漸受規限,從技術上看,其時不但再度跌穿10天線(約在23,984點左近)及20天線(約在23,800點左近),且技術上更漸呈跌離之趨勢,論形勢當頗不利短期後市之發展,現且看在即月期指轉倉及結算期間,維穩買盤會否再作扶持,恆指最後報收23,344點,較上日跌561點,全日總成交金額爲2,852億元。
拉闊一點看,大市自今年1月13日低位18,671點開始之中期升浪,期間共出現三次較明顯之回調,第一次之回調是由2月27日之高位24,076點跌至3月4日之低位22,547點,即恆指共回調1,529點,第二次回調是由3月7日之高位24,669點跌至3月13日之低位23,198點,即恆指共回調1,471點,第三之回調是由3月19日之高位24,874點跌至25日之低位23,321點,即恆指共回調1,463點,從技術上看,上述三次之回調,大市均呈浪高於浪之趨勢,但需留意,大市自3月19日高位24,874點開始之回調,必需穩守於3月13日之低位23,198點之上,因此據點一旦有失,即表示大市浪高於浪之趨勢已受破壞,而其時大市可能已開始步入中期大升後之新一輪中期調整中。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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