郭思治:大市終出現大幅急升後之正常回吐
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治分析指,大市經過連升三天後,昨終見技術性之高臺回吐,恆指昨早市先高開134點至21,656點,其後曾再進一步稍升至21,682點,但由於高臺買盤態度開始保守,加上伺高回吐之沽壓亦漸增,故整個大市卒開始反覆回落至21,279點才漸見喘定,其後大市亦一直處拉據狀態之中,經過昨天之高開後,本月大市在先低後高之形態主導下,恆指是由3日之低位19,764點升至11日早市之高位21,682點,即在七個交易日內,累積之波幅己達1,918點,論升幅確頗偏促,故略作回吐乃正常現象,而從技術上看,只要恆指仍能持續穩企於10天線(約在20,694點左近)之上,即表示大市仍有機會再進一步往上尋月內之新高,當然,成交金額能否配合至爲關鍵,恆指最後報收21,294點,較上日跌227點,全日總成交金額爲2,196億元。
再看移動線方面之表現,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲10天線(約在20,694點左近),20天線(約在20,100點左近),100天線(約在20,001點左近),50天線(約在19,906點左近)及250天線(約在18,426點左近),從資料可見到,只要50天線成功重越100天線之後,各組平均移動線之排列將回復標準之升市模式,出現此情況,該表示大市技術上己身處一箇中期升浪之中,剩下之問題只是資金之入市態度能否保持積極,即是說,只要大市之成交金額仍能保持暢旺,在動力配合之下,大市仍會續往上尋頂,直到成交金額漸見萎縮,大市纔會在動力不足之下,逐漸出現明顯反覆及回吐。(筆者爲證監會持牌人)
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