郭思治:大市正欲進一步上試100天及20天線
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨日(16日)再進一步反彈,恆指昨早市先高開168點至19,454點,其後再進一步升至19,664點方漸受規限,即其時大市已再急升378點,且亦一舉重越10天線(約在19,337點左近),100天線(約在19,577點左近)及20天線(約在19,610點左近),但由於高臺買盤保守,加上伺高回吐之獲利貨漸現,故整個大市便漸呈拉據,而恆指亦一度略回落至19345點方漸見喘定,其後大市一直處整固之中,恆指最後報收19,522點,較上日再升236點,全日總成交金額爲1423億元。
大市自去年10月7日高位23241點開始之回落,首個技術支持爲11月26日之低位19,054點,即恆指共回調4,187點,其後大市後抽而回升至12月10日之高位21,070,即恆指回升2,016點,惟在買盤薄弱及沽壓又不斷涌現下,大市又再反覆回落至本月13日之低位18,671點,即恆指共回調2,399點,目前正處急回後之技術性反彈中,值得留意的是,目前大市正處中期下移之通道之中,,故即使大市能再進一步回升,但亦只屬在下移通道中之技術性後抽而已,故任何投機性之短炒行動,切記要做好風險管理,同時亦不宜過急及過勇,在實體經濟仍然疲弱之下,股市之上升暫只能視作技術性回升或後抽。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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