郭家耀:俄烏戰事展開停火談判 港股料進入整固期
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股週二(18日)反覆靠穩,俄烏戰爭展開停戰談判,有利市場氣氛,但投資者繼續關注全球貿易戰加劇,拖累三大指數收市升跌不一。美元走勢向好,美國十年期債息回升至4.55釐水平,金價及油價亦表現向上。港股預託證券表現向下,預料大市早段跟隨低開。
內地股市昨日下跌,滬綜指高開低走,收市下跌0.9%,滬深兩市成交額亦略爲縮減。
港股表現持續強勢,指數一度衝上23,000點水平,其後高位有獲利回吐,收市仍錄得不俗升幅,大市成交保持活躍。市場氣氛仍然熾熱,AI概念股繼續受到熱捧。考慮到近日大市升幅較大,預料大市進入整固期,指數將於22,000至23,000點水平橫行。
人民銀行日前公佈1月份新增貸款5.13萬億元人民幣,高於市場預期的4.53萬億元。分部門看,住戶貸款增加4,438億元,其中,短期貸款減少497億元,中長期貸款增加4,935億元;企業單位貸款增加4.78萬億元,其中短期貸款增加1.74萬億元,中長期貸款增加3.46萬億元,票據融資減少5,149億元;非銀行業金融機構貸款減少2,008億元。1月底,人民幣貸款餘額260.77萬億元,按年增長7.5%。1月底,廣義貨幣(M2)餘額318.52萬億元,按年增長7%。狹義貨幣(M1)餘額112.45萬億元,按年增長0.4%。流通中貨幣(M0)餘額14.23萬億元,按年增長17.2%。當月淨投放現金1.41萬億元。1月份人民幣存款增加4.32萬億元。1月底,人民幣存款餘額306.55萬億元,按年增長5.8%。1月份,社會融資規模增量爲7.06萬億元,比上年同期多5,833億元。其中對實體經濟發放的人民幣貸款增加5.22萬億元;對實體經濟發放的外幣貸款摺合人民幣減少392億元。1月底,社會融資規模存量爲415.2萬億元,按年增長8%。其中對實體經濟發放的人民幣貸款餘額爲257.71萬億元;對實體經濟發放的外幣貸款摺合人民幣餘額爲1.24萬億元。1月份新增人民幣貸款數據強勁,跟季節性因素有較大關係,考慮到其他經濟數據近月表現低於預期,民間貸款需求疲弱,令信貸增長受限制。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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