植耀輝:恆指繼續區間上落 美欲復興造船業談何容易
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,雖然關稅談判未見更多消息,不過正所謂「No news is good news」,加上個別板塊如汽車及科技股造好,帶動恆指本週最高暫升至23,917點水平,亦即筆者早前定下之目標區間。雖然形勢不俗,不過再向上望之信心不大,正如上週所指,在未有更多包括貿易談判及內地刺激政策等催化劑之前,恆指要再作突破不易。所以大市於23,000至24,000點繼續整固機會甚高。由於已升至目標水平,除非覺得大市繼續破位,否則現時值搏率並不高,若仍有意入市則建議分段吸納以及只考慮個別強勢板塊會較好。另外筆者對「寧王」寧德時代(03750.HK)上市後表現如此強勁也頗意外,未來有時間將會與大家拆解一下其業務以及業績表現。
另外,因應貿易談判以及準備講座關係,筆者在這段時間花了不少時間去研究美國造船業之景況,當中部分內容相當有趣,在此跟大家分享。有關「讓美國造船業再強大」於早前專欄已跟大家稍稍跟進。不過到底現時情況如何?在全球造船業份額中,中國船廠佔全球造船總量74%,美國則只有0.2%;另外,於集裝箱以至港口岸橋起重機制造方面,前者中國生產全球約96%,後者亦達到80%,美國呢?幾乎沒有生產。
以下例子亦可以說明美國要重新發展造船業有多難。話說美國爲加強對北極海上安全之部署,於5月9日批準一項破冰船全面建造計劃。美國總統特朗普曾表示,未來將建造多達40艘破冰船。不過其實早於2019年,有關當局已下單訂造三艘大型破冰船。原計劃於2024年交付第一艘,但交付時間一改再改,現時最新預計爲2030年5月。至於造價亦由原先7.5億美元,急增至19億美元。出現如此延誤之最大原因,在於美國本身缺乏設計及建造大型破冰船經驗,另外亦包括設計複雜及疫情影響供應鏈等因素。所以「讓美國造船業再強大」究竟最終淪爲口號又或「十年磨一劍」,大家還是繼續多加觀察吧!當然日後若再有相關有趣資料,筆者亦會與大家繼續分享。
(筆者並未持有相關股份)~
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