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郭家耀:關稅消息續困擾大市 港股下方支持料萬九水平
阿思達克 04-09 09:02
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股週二(8日)大幅波動,先升後跌,市場繼續關注關稅實施情況,大市早段一度急升超過1,400點,其後急轉直下,曾倒跌超過800點,尾市跌幅稍爲收窄,三大指數均錄得跌幅收市。美元走勢向下,美國十年期債息回升至4.29釐水平,金價低位反彈,油價則持續受壓。港股預託證券普遍下跌,預料大市早段跟隨外圍低開。 內地股市昨日向好,滬綜指低開高走,收市上升1.6%,滬深兩市成交額略爲增加。港股急跌後出現反彈,指數重上20,000點水平,整體成交保持活躍。關稅消息繼續困擾大市表現,指數走勢將呈大幅上落,下方支持在19,000點水平,20,000點附近將有較大阻力。 另標準普爾最新報告指出,內地去年經濟表現良好,令商業銀行的不良資產佔總貸款比率維持在5.1%,低於該行預期的5.9%。不過,隨着美國今年大幅上調中國進口貨品關稅,將對內地經濟造成負面影響,拖累並會傳導至銀行體系,預期未來幾年問題貸款會增加,在下行情景下,不良資產率甚至可能升至6.4%。目前中國仍在處理與疫情、房地產下行週期等相關問題,現再加上美國加徵更多關稅,將面臨額外壓力,經濟受拖累將損害銀行的資產質素。即使未計及對等關稅,該行已預期原先關稅會令中國2025至2027年的實質GDP增長放緩至平均4%,關稅影響內地出口行業及就業,導致微小企業與無擔保零售貸款產生更多不良債務。預料內地將推出更多宏觀政策支持經濟表現,加上早前財政部對內地銀行進行注資,將有助刺激政策傳導,內銀行業展望可維持穩定。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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