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《大行》花旗列出蘋果iPhone面臨美國25%關稅對盈利影響敏感性分析(表)
美國總統特朗普上周五(23日)表示,蘋果公司(AAPL.US)在美國境外生產的iPhone,必須向美國政府支付25%或更高的關稅。花旗發表告,假設對所有美國進口產品徵收25%關稅作為最壞情況(iPhone約佔美國產品的2/3),該行估計將對蘋果公司2026財年的毛利率造成約130個基點的增量影響,或對每股盈利造成4%的增量影響。 該行亦列出蘋果公司旗下iPhone面臨美國關稅的不同情境影響預測: 情境一:所有美國市場產品支付25%關稅 支付25%關稅│2025年預測│2026年預測│2026年預測 綜合關稅│25%│25%│25% 毛利率影響│-0.6%│-2.6%│-2.6% 每股盈利影響│-0.14美元│-0.66美元│-0.71美元 每股盈利影響│-2%│-8.1%│-7.9% --------------------------------------------- 情境二:目前(20%中國及10%印度) 目前(20%中國及10%印度)│2025年預測│2026年預測│2026年預測 綜合關稅│14%│13%│11% 毛利率影響│-0.4%│1.4%│-1.2% 每股盈利影響│-0.08美元│-0.34美元│-0.32美元 每股盈利影響│-1.1%│-4.2%│-3.6% --------------------------------------------- 情境一與情境二的分別(所有美國市場產品支付25%關稅與目前比較) 毛利率影響│-0.3%│-1.3%│-1.4% 每股盈利影響│-0.06美元│-0.32美元│-0.38美元 每股盈利影響│-0.9%│-4.1%│-4.5%
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