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《大行》花旗升黃金目標預測至每盎司3,500美元 長期仍持謹慎
阿思達克 05-26 14:19
花旗發表報告,稱美國近日曾揚言從6月起對歐盟加徵50%關稅的背景下,該行決定將0至3個月黃金目標價上調至每盎司3,500美元,但長期仍保持謹慎。鉑族金屬(PGM)漲勢可能超出基本面支撐。 該行重申,當前黃金消費佔全球GDP約0.5%,為半世紀以來最高水平,反映出高不確定性推升投資需求。對黃金長期謹慎的兩大驅因素包括:1)美國中期選舉前,增長預期及相關權益市場風險可能隨美聯儲局降息預期而緩解;2)當前家庭黃金持倉量已達半世紀以來最高,或制約後續買盤空間。 展望2025年下半年,該行預計金價將圍繞當前水平持續盤整,因全球需消化美國關稅政策影響,同時地緣政治風險高企、預算憂慮升溫,且中國與印度經濟保持堅挺。金價有望在每盎司3,100至3,500美元、呈現強勢區間震盪機會。 該行對鈀金仍持看空態度,因其未受益於任何激勵措施,且基本面依舊極度疲弱。認為近期漲勢是礦商對沖及投機者做空的又一次機會。
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