《大行》里昂:降價刺激疲弱銷售 料比亞迪(01211.HK)、吉利(00175.HK)及零跑(09863.HK)處較有利位置
里昂發表報告指,比亞迪(01211.HK)以額外1萬至3萬人民幣的折扣(不包括國家以舊換新補貼)打響了今年價格戰的第一槍,對其海洋和王朝系列車型額外提供每輛車1萬至3萬人民幣的折扣;其標誌性車型秦Plus的建議零售價降至6.38萬元人民幣(此前為7.98萬元人民幣)。
里昂表示,鑑於比亞迪面臨年度目標的壓力,這一宣布並未令市場意外。該行認為,今年預計的電動車增長仍足以通過規模經濟吸收降價影響(里昂估計電動車總增長約270萬輛,其中一半以上來自價格低於15萬人民幣的大眾市場車型),表明增長足以支持比亞迪、吉利(00175.HK)和零跑汽車(09863.HK)的年度銷量目標。然而,非領先的原始設備製造商(OEMs)將面臨困難,行業未來盈利能力取決於整合速度。總體而言,該行預計未來幾季國內盈利能力將趨於下降,而擁有強大海外市場的原始設備製造商應能更輕鬆地抵銷折扣影響。從這一角度看,預計比亞迪的總體利潤率將相對穩定。
就股市而言,里昂認為這並非投資者希望看到的,但相信競爭不可避免,且最終將加速行業整合。往年的降價表明,股價實際上對長期格局的反應更為明顯。昂認為吉利、比亞迪和零跑汽車在應對市場亂局方面處於更有利的位置。該行預計合資品牌內燃機車及價格在15萬至25萬人民幣範圍的車型將需要更多降價。
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