《大行》華泰證券升同程旅行(0780.HK)目標價26.5元 維持「買入」評
阿思達克 05-26 09:42
華泰證券發表研究報告，指同程旅行(0780.HK)第一季度收入44億人民幣，按年增長13.2%，基本符合VA一致預期的43億元，調整後淨利潤7.9億人民幣，超預期8%。華泰證券看好國內旅遊的需求韌性，將同程目標價由26.1港元升至26.5港元，維持「買入」評級。
該行指，同程旅行2025年第一季收入基本符合預期，其中2025年第一季度毛利潤30億人民幣，按年增長19.8%，超預期5.5%，毛利率68.8%，超預期3個百分點，銷售、管理、研發三項費用率合計51.5%，低於預期0.3個百分點。綜合影響下，第一季度公司經營利潤8.2億元，按年增長79.6%，超預期21.2%。
拆分來看，核心OTA業務中，住宿、交通、其他業務較預期分別爲-0.1%、+2.2%、+0.6%，各項業務發展穩健且基本符合預期。渡假業務因東南亞地區相關安全輿論影響，收入按年下滑11.8%。2025年第一季度公司國際機票銷售額按年增長40%，佔交通業務5%以上，較去年同期提升3個百分點，國際酒店間夜量按年增長超50%。
此外，公司繼續利用交通業務流量優勢，推進交叉銷售戰略。當前已建立較大的用戶基礎，第一季度平均月付費用戶按年增長9.2%，在此基礎上，季度平均客單價持續攀升至62元以上，按年增幅近20%。展望後續，文旅部數據顯示五一假期國內旅遊人次和收入按年分別增長6%和8%，交通部統計客運量按年增長8%，旅遊需求韌性下，看好公司持續深挖用戶價值獲得長期增長潛力。
該行預計同程旅行2025至2027年收入分別爲195億、222億、249億人民幣，預計公司2025至2027年調整後淨利潤分別34億、41億、48億人民幣，看好國內旅遊的需求韌性。
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