植耀輝:推介股業績跟進
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股本週繼續在北水大舉涌港下維持強勁升勢,恆指進一步突破兩萬四大關,科指年內累升更已超過三成,表現遠遠拋離區內以至美股。一衆科技股現價估值已絕不便宜,個別市盈率更已飆升至70、80倍。惟現時仍難以評估港股可以行得多遠,皆因資金市無路可捉;不過,日後只要企穩250月線(21,750點),以及北水南下掃貨(尤其是)趨勢不變,恆指有望延續「尋頂之旅」。
Nvidia(NVDA.US)業績繼續沒有令筆者失望。第四財季收入按年增加78%,當中來自數據中心之收入亦按年增加93%。「黃總」黃仁勳指Blackwell需求是「Amazing」,並透露第四財季來自Blackwell之收入達到110億美元;至於全年每股盈利爲2.94美元,按年升147%,以現價計市盈率約40倍。當然更值得關注爲業績展望。Nvidia預期2026年度首年收入將介乎421.4億至438.6億美元,以中位數430億美元計按季上升9.4%,按年則增加65%;毛利率則維持於7成以上水平。Nvidia管理層於分析員會議上釋出相當樂觀之言論,進一步印證筆者過去觀點:對算力的需求不會有人嫌多。當然依然會有人質疑其盈利增速放緩,不過正如上文所指,「黃總」對Blackwell展望之樂觀預期,以及其市盈率現時已回落至40倍,筆者對Nvidia仍充滿信心,除非特朗普再有驚人之舉,否則將會繼續採取長線持有策略。
與此同時,執筆之時珩灣科技(01523.HK)剛公佈全年業績,收入增加24%,股東應佔溢利增加35.4%,至3,804.6萬美元。業績理想其中一個原因,在於Peplink Starlink項目帶來之正面影響;集團於業績發佈中亦有較大篇幅提及此合作對往業績會帶來正面支持。另一值得留意事項爲派息持續慷慨,集團第二次中期息爲13.37港仙及特別息5.65港仙,計及特別息全年派息比率超過100%。股價今日或有望受惠此等因素,筆者亦會在較後時間再對此股作詳細分析。
另外,由於個別推介股有異動,故亦須更進最新部署。中遠國際(00517.HK)未能入選恆生綜合指數,加上美國擬推出遏制中國造船業措施,導致股價從高位回落。前者雖有點失望,但對基本面不會帶來任何影響;後者對其塗料業務亦似乎不會帶來衝擊,所以結論是繼續持有,靜待業績表現再作評估;至於上週提及之津上機牀(01651.HK),年內升幅一度達到64%,主要受惠於機械人概念。監於短期升幅實在相當驚人,筆者亦已於18.5元附近先行止賺。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人持有Nvidia、珩灣科技及中遠國際股份)~
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