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植耀輝:美股2025年展望
阿思達克 12-13 09:05
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股本週一度因政策憧憬而急升至21,000點附近,惟很快又回落至兩萬關,昨日(12日)則又再反彈至20,400點附近;不過同期A股卻並未如此亢奮,升幅亦不及恆指科指,反映中港投資者對政策之解讀有所不同,亦可能是大家寧願進一步等待中經會之消息始再行部署。 上週分享過對港股之看法,今日便輪到美股。筆者一直是美股大好友,原因十分簡單,皆因擁有「領頭羊股」概念。任何投資最重要之元素就是「有故事」(Story)。遠至1637年之鬱金香狂熱,近至千禧年科網熱皆是如此,問題只是會否出現「炒過龍」或「泡沫化」之情況。而過去兩年帶動美股強勢之領頭羊就是人工智能(AI)。筆者並不認爲AI是泡沫,亦相信現時仍處起步階段,所以對美股整體看法仍相當樂觀。當然AI發展並非一躍而就,但隨着科技企業斥巨資進行相關研發,AI應用出現突破並多元化發展只是時間問題,一旦出現此拐點,樂觀情緒及氣氛將有望進一步推升美股估值。 最大挑戰則肯定是特朗普風險,尤其是可預見當其上任後勢必馬上大打關稅牌,對全球經濟肯定會帶來深遠影響,而且其「美國優先」政策對全球化亦必然帶來沉重打擊;不過大打關稅牌之同時,特朗普亦會延續2017年稅改措施並進行大規模減稅,包括削減公司稅等。另外,特朗普在上屆總統任期多次抨擊聯儲局政策,矛頭更直指主席鮑威爾;而特朗普在最新訪問中表示無意撤換鮑威爾,究竟是由衷之言抑或言不由衷,很快便有所分曉。 至於對美股之影響仍有待觀察,不過既然特朗普曾做過四年總統(2017年至2020年),亦不妨作爲參考。在其四年總統任期期間,美股四大指數(道指、納指、標普500指數及羅素2000指數)均錄得三升一跌,升市年份中指數升幅皆達雙位數,表現最好爲2019年,指數升幅介乎22%至35%,至於下跌年份爲2018年,當時特朗普開始對中國大打關稅戰,結果當年美股由升轉跌,不過除羅素2000指數跌幅較大(跌12%)外,其餘三個指數跌幅介乎3.9%至6.2%。另外,科技股爲首之納指表現整體最出色,除2018年下跌3.9%外,其餘升幅均超過兩成,2019年更升35%;值得留意是,羅素2000指數升幅相比另外三個指數爲少,似乎反映特朗普在任更利好大型企業股價表現。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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