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郭家耀:貿易戰升級美股波動 港股成交保持清淡
阿思達克 02-04 08:59
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股週一(3日)先跌後回穩,受美國實施關稅政策影響,市場憂慮貿易戰繼續升級,大市早段大幅低開,其後傳出關稅措施將暫緩執行,大市跌勢逐步回穩,三大指數仍錄得輕微跌幅收市。美元走勢向好,美國十年期債息回落至4.55釐水平,金價繼續破頂,油價則先升後回。港股預託證券大致向好,預料大市早段跟隨高開。 內地股市繼續假期休市,港股昨日低開高走,指數一度跌穿二萬點水平,其後低位反彈,收市僅錄得輕微跌幅,整體成交保持清淡。市場關注貿易戰消息,外圍走勢繼續波動,港股短期仍然反覆,預料指數維持於19,700至20,500點水平上落。 國家統計局公佈,1月份中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI)降至49.1,按月下降1個百分點,製造業景氣水平有所回落,並遜於市場預期的50.1。從企業規模看,大、中、小型企業PMI分別爲49.9、49.5和46.5,按月下降0.6、1.2和2個百分點,均低於臨界點。從分類指數看,在構成製造業PMI的5個分類指數中,供應商配送時間指數高於臨界點,生產指數、新訂單指數、原材料庫存指數和從業人員指數均低於臨界點。1月的生產指數爲49.8,按月下降2.3個百分點,表明製造業生產活動有所放緩。新訂單指數爲49.2,按月下降1.8個百分點,表明製造業市場需求回落。原材料庫存指數爲47.7,按月下降0.6個百分點,表明製造業主要原材料庫存量繼續減少。從業人員指數爲48.1,與上月持平,表明製造業企業用工景氣度保持穩定。供應商配送時間指數爲50.3,按月下降0.6個百分點,仍高於臨界點,表明製造業原材料供應商交貨時間加快。國統局表示,期內受春節假日臨近,企業員工集中返鄉等因素影響,導致PMI下跌,但預期指數明顯回升。生產經營活動預期指數爲55.3,按月上升2個百分點,升至較高景氣區間,表明多數製造業企業對節後市場發展信心增強。應對未來變化多端的外貿形勢,內地製造業表現仍然反覆,需要更多政策支持,帶動宏觀經濟表現復甦。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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