郭家耀:港股技術反彈 基本面未見明顯改善 中美息差擴大壓抑人匯
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股週二(14日)個別發展,大市高開後升幅一度擴大,但科技股仍有調整壓力,三大指數收市升跌不一。美元反覆回落,美國十年期債息維持於4.79釐水平,金價表現向好,油價則由高位下滑。港股預託證券缺乏方向,預料大市早段變動不大。
內地股市昨日向好,滬綜指高開高走,收市上升2.5%,滬深兩市成交額明顯增加。
港股昨日跟隨內地股市上升,指數重上19,000點水平,整體成交亦略爲增加。大市連跌多日後出現技術反彈,不過基本面未見明顯改善,預料指數繼續於18,500至19,500點水平徘徊。
另人民銀行日前決定階段性暫停在公開市場買入國債,表示監於近期政府債券市場持續供不應求,決定1月起暫停開展公開市場國債買入操作,後續將視國債市場供求狀況擇機恢復。市場分析指出,國債買賣是投放流動性的工具,但也被用來達到穩定債券市場價格的目的;暫停買入並不意味着市場流動性收緊,且能平衡國債市場供求關係。人行宣佈暫停開展公開市場國債買入操作後,銀行間債市現券收益率一度大幅飆升,但由於基本面疲弱未變,加上寬鬆政策預期仍在,機構繼續積極買入,推動中長期債券收益率轉而下行。同時,美債收益率上升,中美10年國債負利差持續擴大,利差倒掛幅度超過300個基點,爲有紀錄以來最大水平。息差明顯爲人民幣帶來壓力,同時內地資金追求穩定收益資產,令這些資產價格有望水漲船高。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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