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郭思治:大市漸進入反彈後之高臺整固之中
阿思達克 01-16 08:54
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨天(15日)進入整固之中,技術上雖仍處大幅急跌後之反彈中,但卻未能出現明顯突破,恆指昨早市先低開70點至19,149點,其後由於沽壓並不明顯,加上維穩之買盤又稍見主動,故市勢卒開始緩步回升,但當恆指升至19,319點時,買意已漸趨保守,故整個大市亦漸陷拉鋸之中,即是說,大市技術上雖仍處反彈之趨勢中,但恆指卻未能伺機重越10天線(約在19,348點左近),前文已述,恆指必需先成功重越10天線並穩守其上,技術上方能初呈真正的回穩訊號,惟有一點可見到,恆指既能重越19,000點並穩守其上,至少代表大市之跌勢已初見喘定,恆指最後報收19,286點,較上日升66點,全日總成交金額爲1,285億元。 值得留意的是,目前50天線正位於19,789點左近,20天線則位於19,625點左近,100天線約在19,557點左近,而10天線則在19,348點左近,即是說,上述四組平均移動線相距現指並不遠,但在買盤薄弱之下,大市暫時未能再作較明顯之推升,如情況依然,則整個大市技術上將仍身處反覆欲試底之弱態中,故任何投機性之短炒行動,在持續不明之市況下,當不宜過急及過勇,最重要的是要做好風險管理。 本月大市暫時之形態仍暫屬先高而後低,恆指暫是由2日之高位19,932點跌至13日之低位18,671點,即在8個交易日內,月內之波幅已下跌1,261點,由於周來大市之跌勢略偏促,故技術上便出現小許反彈,此乃正常現象,但並不代表大市已真正脫險。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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