郭思治:大市持續處技術性回吐之中
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市經過上週四、五之一輪大幅急跌後,昨日(24日)亦略見反覆,恆指昨早市先輕微高開60點至23,749點,其後一直處反覆拉鋸之中,上落於23,531點至23,769點之間,由於方向不明,故投資者多續抱觀望,因而成交金額亦顯着萎縮,從技術上看,由於恆指持續反覆於10天線(約在24,028點左近)及20天線(約在23,784點左近)之下,故整個大市目前該已漸進入中期大幅急升後之消化及回吐中,再從圖上看,目前較重要之支持據點已下移至3月13日之低位23,198點,此防線一旦有失,則另一個技術支持將退守至3月4日之低位22,547點,故一日恆指仍未能成功重越20天線及10天線並穩守其上之前,投資者仍該抱較條守之態度,恆指最後報收23,905點,較上日升215點,全日總成交金額爲2,331億元。
此潮中期升浪是始自今年1月13日之低位18,671點,至3月19日高位24,874點止計,在短短九周內,累積之升幅已達6203點,論升幅實已不算小,故一旦買盤卻步,定必引來伺高回吐之獲利沽壓,從傳統之調整方法計,如大市需回調6,203點升幅之31.8%,則後市可能會進一步反覆回試22,902點,嚴格而言,大市如欲擺脫進一步調整之威脅,恆指必需先成功重越20天線及10天線並穩守其上,至於其時恆指能否再進一步試頂,則需視乎資金之入市態度而定,因大市之動力如不相配,大市即使能偶作推升,惟升勢亦會漸受規限,值得一提的是,3月底是今年首季之季結,技術上或會有維穩之資金略作粉飾,從而令恆指能靠緊較高位作季結。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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