植耀輝:250月線 續成恆指好淡分水嶺
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,各位讀者有否發覺港股近期之升勢有點似曾相識?所指的是過去一年美股受AI熱潮之體會,只是炒作對象由AI/Nvidia變成DeepSeek,以及美股變爲港股而已。近期任何公司只要與DeepSeek扯上關係,隨即便成爲追捧對象,就連內地三大電訊營運商也不例外。
港股及A股過去兩年因缺乏相關主題(AI),故在全球升市中「斯人獨憔悴」;今次難得出現此等題材,出現可觀升幅亦不太感意外,而中概科技股估值亦因DeepSeek得到重估亦合理。另外,港股在今次升市中表現遠好於A股(年初至今上綜指累跌0.58%,深成指累升2%,反觀恆指及科指則累升達8.8%及17%),皆因炒作集中於大型科技股等權重股,例如「ATM」又或中芯(00981.HK),這些亦是北水大舉「掃貨」之主要對象;A股則因缺乏此等巨無霸科企,導致指數表現有點停滯不前。
恆指昨日一度升至22,500點水平,並突破筆者視爲好淡分水嶺之250月線(21,750點),午後則單日轉向倒跌。當然,港股累升不少,出現調整亦屬合理,關鍵在於本月是否最終能企穩於此水平,若能企穩則可視之爲港股正式轉勢。至於港股未來能走多遠,所謂升市莫估頂,只要「Story(故事)」/主題仍在,相關炒作仍有望持續;惟一旦形勢出現逆轉(如昨日北水沽貨),則要理性行事(減倉)。
由於筆者組合內並沒有持有本地科技股,所以在今次升市中未有太受惠,不過個別持股亦如預期般發盈喜,例如IGG(00799.HK)。其股價本輪最高曾升至4.7元,與早前訂下之5元目標價相距不遠;不過筆者暫無意上調目標價,亦打算按策略減持,原因在於對今次盈喜表現略感失望。雖然與23年年度同期相比盈利急增700%至5.8億元,不過下半年盈利與上半年相比仍有較大倒退(上半年盈利:3.3億,下半年:2.5億),原因除了是投資項目公允值變動拖累外,亦可能與研發開支下半年降幅較上半年少有關(上半年減幅21%vs下半年減幅10%)。
事實上其股價自公佈盈喜後不升反跌之餘,調整幅度亦不算少(由最高位計回調超過一成),某程度上亦反映投資者對盈喜表現並不收貨。當然,近年主打之遊戲包括《Doomsday》及《Viking Rise》等收入維持增長屬利好,以及預測市盈率不足10倍等依然有其吸引力,只是估值暫亦缺乏進一步上調之理由矣!
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有IGG股份)~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.