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郭家耀:市場特朗普關稅政策 港股短期料反覆向下
阿思達克 01-08 09:06
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股週二(7日)先升後跌,美國債息向上,不利大市氣氛,科技股顯着急挫,三大指數均錄得跌幅收市。美元走勢強勁,美國十年期債息上升至4.68釐水平,金價及油價表現向好。港股預託證券表現偏軟,預料大市早段跟隨低開。 內地股市昨日向好,滬綜指低開高走,收市上升0.7%,滬深兩市成交額亦略爲增加。 港股表現受壓,多家中國企業被美國國防部列入中國軍方合作名單,市場憂慮地緣政局緊張升溫,大市走勢向下,指數一度低見19,200點水平,尾市跌幅稍爲收窄,整體成交亦顯着增加。投資氣氛轉爲審慎,市場觀望外圍息口去向,以及特朗普上場後推出的關稅政策,預料短期大市反覆向下,指數有機會下試19,000點支持,上方阻力在20,000點水平。 另人民銀行貨幣政策委員會日前舉行2024年第四季度例會,會議認爲要實施適度寬鬆的貨幣政策,加強逆週期調節,更好發揮貨幣政策工具的總量和結構雙重功能,加大貨幣財政政策協同配合,保持經濟穩定增長和物價總體穩定。會議研究了下階段貨幣政策主要思路,建議加大貨幣政策調控強度,提高貨幣政策調控前瞻性、針對性、有效性,根據國內外經濟金融形勢和金融市場運行情況,擇機降準降息。會議研究深化金融供給側結構性改革相關工作,指出要用好證券、基金、保險公司互換便利和股票回購增持再貸款等新設立工具,維護資本市場穩定。着力推動已出臺金融政策措施落地見效,加大存量商品房和存量土地盤活力度,推動房地產市場止跌回穩,完善房地產金融基礎性制度,助力構建房地產發展新模式。同時,把實施擴大內需戰略同深化供給側結構性改革有機結合起來,增強宏觀政策協調配合,有效落實存量政策,加力推動增量政策落地見效,抓好開局起步,擴大內需、穩定預期、激發活力,推動經濟持續回升向好。由於宏觀數據表現未見起色,預料人行將會更積極實施貨幣政策,短期內降準可能性較大。內地長期息率持續向下,將有利高息股估值水平。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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