郭思治:大市昨出現技術性之大突破
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(12日)出現技術性之突破,昨恆指早市先高開316點至23,183點,其後曾一度反覆回落至22,982點,由於沽壓並不明顯,故大市大部份時間均穩企於23000點之上,至午後,有消息指中美之關稅問題有突破性之發展,故大市卒急步升至23,685點方漸受規限,即其時恆指已一度急升818點,經此一升,本用大市在先低後高之形態主導下,恆指已由2日之低位22,058點升至12日之高位23,685點,即月內之波幅已擴闊至1627點,由於一個月之高低位是很少同時出現於6個交易日之內,故只要先低後高之形態不變,大市仍會進一步往上尋月內之新高,恆指最後報收23,549點,較上日升681點,全日總成交金額爲3,224億元。
大市自4月9日低位19,260點開始之反彈,至5月12日高位23,685點止計,恆指在短短五週內,累積之升幅已達4,425點,論升幅確不算小,且升勢亦略偏促,故一旦買盤態度稍見保守,升勢當會漸受規限,而大市亦會稍作消化及整固,但由於沽壓並不太明顯,故整個大市即使略見回吐及反覆,惟只要能持續穩企於50天線(約在22,795點左近)之上,則從技術上看,大市之反彈趨勢確予人有餘未盡之感,由於恆指已成功升越7日之高位23,197點,再上望之目標該爲4月1日之高位23,456點。
移動線方面之表現續偏穩,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲50天線(約在22,795點左近),10天線(約在22,514點左近),20天線(約在21,894點左近),100天線(約在21,633點左近)及250天線(約在19,893點左近),即是說,只要大市能持續穩守在50天線之上,便可穩企於各組平均移動線之上,論形態,技術上該有利於短期後市之發展。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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