植耀輝:250月線續成好淡分水嶺
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,挾着百億票房以及史上最賣座動畫之勢,《哪吒2》本地上畫應該會有一定吸引力。至於爲何如此賣座,筆者亦有初步瞭解,劇情及動畫特技可能是最大賣點,但亦可能與今年新春檔期對手錶現不濟有關。其中兩套「大卡士」製作《封神二》及《射鵰》原先市場寄望甚殷,並分別預計取得35億及超過10億之票房,不過現時兩者票房只得約12億及6.5億元人民幣,排片佔比(即戲院播放場次)亦已跌至5.2%及2.4%,反而《哪吒2》仍高達58.2%,在人氣仍高下,《哪吒2》票房有望再破紀錄矣!
港股方面,在科技股持續強勢下,恆指一度突破23,000點,昨日回吐近.370點,但年初至今表現依然不弱,亦站穩250月線(21,750點)之上。由於北水持續「掃貨」,一日維持此狀況,恆指將有望維持大漲小回格局;不過另一關鍵爲DeepSeek概念是否仍能長炒長有。相比美股當日各大科企自建LLM,內地現時則似集中火力發展DeepSeek,畢竟自當日橫空出世以及各企業爭相接入後,至今似乎未見有更多刺激;另外,雖然港股過去兩年「大落後」,但年初至今升幅確相當驚人,科指已累升23%,成份股中阿里健康(00241.HK)更已升超過七成。故若沒有進一步利好消息,港股出現調整亦可說在所難免。筆者會繼續以250月線作爲恆指未來走勢之參考。
最後簡單跟進部分推介股份最新部署。美股方面,筆者減持了軍工股洛克馬丁(LMT.US),並換馬至Meta(META.US),主要是LMT業務展望及股價走勢令人失望,Meta則業績理想以及估值仍然吸引;港股則續於九興(01836.HK)股價回調時稍作增持,另中遠國際(00517.HK)周初一度升抵筆者首個目標(4.6元),未來亦會依早前策略略爲減磅(重申減磅原因並非看淡,而是很久之前已訂下若升至$4.6將象徵式減持套現買禮物獎勵自己及太太而已!)。不過值得一提的是,今日恆指季檢,若中遠國際能入選恆生綜合指數,則有望入選港股通之列,對股價亦屬正面。當然關鍵仍是業績是否合乎筆者預期,故會待其業績後再作跟進。另外亦要提一提敏實(00425.HK),此股昨日大幅抽升31%,似與人功智能發展扯上關係。不過由於升幅頗巨,建議持貨者可考慮減磅獲利。
(筆者持有Meta、中遠國際及九興控股股份)~
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