國泰海通證券:白酒行業週期尋底 配置價值凸顯
國泰海通證券研報表示,延續前期觀點,白酒行業2025年第二季度產業景氣度環比角度仍在尋底,價格端壓力大於量的壓力,從庫存週期視角看,白酒產業或完全進入到庫存週期後半段,在此維度下,大部分企業短期業績表現愈發賴於核心市場的市佔率提升,且愈發依賴於腰部及以下單品驅動,份額邏輯演繹到最後階段。白酒商品屬性正在加速重塑,其快消品屬性強化,能夠提前適應快消品運作邏輯的企業競爭優勢會愈發凸顯。股價層面,白酒板塊配置價值凸顯:1)分紅層面有潛力:當下頭部企業股息率接近或大於3%;2)動態估值基本回落至歷史區間低位;3)後續具備潛在催化因素,例如房價等資產價格邊際企穩,內需政策等;4)選股層面,首選具備份額邏輯的企業。
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