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中國銀河證券:化工行業景氣低位徘徊,靜待週期築底向上
中國銀河證券表示,25Q1化工行業板塊內部表現分化,石油化工和基礎化工板塊分別實現營業收入10151、6070億元,同比分別變化-7.1%、6.4%;實現歸母淨利潤170、371億元,同比分別變化-23.5%、4.7%。其中,油價回落預計仍是拖累石油化工板塊業績的主因,基礎化工板塊業績增長或與行業規模擴張、供應擾動引發部分產品升價潮等因素有關。25Q1石油化工、基礎化工板塊銷售毛利率分別為14.3%、17.9%,處歷史底部區間。我們認為,化工行業低景氣有望加速落後產能淘汰、增強行業自律動能。同時,隨着國內刺激內需政策的持續加碼,終端需求動能有望逐步企穩,靜待行業景氣週期築底向上。
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