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大行評級|摩根大通:若一個月HIBOR企穩2% 將令港銀行今年盈利平均下降21%

摩根大通發表研究報告指,一個月香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)於過去兩週下降約200個基點至約1.92%,大幅低於該行今年全年平均爲3.75%的基準預測,估算若一個月HIBOR在今年餘下時間都維持在約2%水平,或會令香港銀行今年盈利平均下降21%,其中恆生銀行、中銀香港、大新銀行及東亞銀行盈利或下降14%、16%、21%及32%,而渣打銀行及匯豐銀行今年盈利則可能下降1%及2%。

摩通指出,息率下降可能會降低市場對香港房地產信貸風險的擔憂,由於香港銀行未有就香港房地產信貸敞口計提撥備,因此預期相關盈利波動不大。該行又指,貸款增長加快和更低的信貸成本可能對銀行盈利有幫助,但不太可能會抵銷淨利息收入下降的負面影響。在香港銀行業中,該行偏好匯豐,本地銀行股首選則爲中銀香港。

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