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交銀國際:內外形勢迎積極改善 港股迎正面催化 建議聚焦三條主線
交銀國際發表港股策略報告表示,港股市場自“對等關稅”宣佈後呈現持續修復態勢,從低點穩步回升,目前已完全收回“對等關稅”宣佈後的失地,當前已超過2024年10月的高點,但距離2025年3月中旬創下的前高仍有一些距離。港股多數行業價格與估值全面修復,內需與防禦板塊領跑,盈利預期穩健。從驅動因素分析,港股修復主要歸因於風險溢價的顯著回落,而無風險利率或企業盈利預期均變動不大。與此同時,4月南向資金延續了年初以來的淨買入態勢,也爲港股市場提供了強有力支撐,並有效平抑了市場波動。該行建議仍聚焦三條主線:(1)繼續看好科技創新主線,包括科技硬件(半導體、新能源汽車產業鏈等)、互聯網科技(人工智能、雲計算等領域),有望受益於政策支持和需求增長雙重驅動;(2)高股息主線:在外部不確定性仍相對較高,以及流動性寬鬆和低利率環境下,高股息吸引力將繼續提升,關注銀行、公用事業和電信營運商;(3)政策紅利主線:降準、降息環境下,券商、保險等金融服務機構將直接受益於市場活躍度提升和風險偏好回升,以及有望受益於消費支持政策持續落地的港股優質消費龍頭。
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