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大行評級丨花旗:中石油首季業績強勁超預期 予其“買入”評級及目標價8.2港元

花旗發表報吿指,中石油2025年第一季度淨利潤468億元,按年增長2%,超出該行對其預測的中單位數百分比下降及對比中石化同期約25%降幅。該行認為這一業績相當出色,儘管實現的油氣價格分別按年下降8%和3%,勘探與生產(E&P)及天然氣營銷的息税前利潤(EBIT)仍分別按年增長7%和10%。這反映了穩健的成本控制(E&P開採成本按年下降6%至每桶9.8美元)及整合的天然氣業務模式,而下游(煉油、化工)利潤率表現繼續優於中石化。

花旗稱,隨着2025年4月至2026年3月更為有利的年度天然氣合同修訂生效,該行預計中石油的國內天然氣單位EBIT將保持穩健,進口天然氣虧損將進一步縮窄,因進口天然氣價格可能從2025年第二季度起開始下降。結合8%以上的穩健股息率和正向自由現金流,中石油仍是該行首選的中國油氣公司。展望次季受油價下跌拖累但天然氣業務提供緩衝,該行對其評級“買入”,H股目標價8.2港元。

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