銀河證券:新質築基+自主破局 軍工行業迎良機
中國銀河證券研報表示,新質築基+自主破局,軍工行業迎拓維良機。短期看,首先,美國關稅政策對軍工產業影響極其有限,“避風港”特徵凸顯,而軍民融合等戰略新興領域有望迎來政策加碼;其次,關稅引發的自主可控需求得到強化,軍技轉民用市場空間打開,比如軍工半導體的民用化開發;再次,軍工部分上遊元器件企業訂單端同比改善明顯,並有望自上而下傳導,強預期向強現實過渡,第二季度基本面改善可期;此外,年報和一季報進入披露窗口,利空逐步出盡,建議“重訂單,輕業績”。中期看,首先,2025年恰逢抗戰暨世界反法西斯戰爭勝利80週年,行業催化劑將持續涌現,看好未來兩個季度軍工板塊相對錶現;其次,央企市值管理+外延併購+資產注入預期再起,資本運作將成爲重要投資主線之一。長期看,2027年建軍百年近在咫尺,三年高景氣有望延續。
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