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飆漲超80%,地產股全面爆發!外資唱多,增量政策將至?

延續昨日漲勢,今日地產股繼續走強。

港股市場,金輝控股盤中一度漲超80%,截止發稿漲40.89%,融信中國漲超17%,遠洋集團漲超10%,中樑控股、龍湖集團等跟漲。

A股房地產板塊指數一度漲超3%,其中,南國置業、我愛我家、世聯行、渝開發等7股漲停。

消息面上,市場在憧憬即將於4月底召開的政治局會議上可能對房地產行業有積極引導。此外,國際知名金融機構花旗與匯豐近日發佈研究報告,均建議投資者增持中國地產股。

外資唱多:樓市抄底時機到了

花旗分析師Griffin Chan和Cindy L​i在週三的報告中寫道:“從未來兩年的投資視角來看,我們認爲當前正是增持中國地產股的好時機,因爲資產週轉率和定價的改善將推動股本回報率回升。”

早在今年2月份,花旗對中國房地產業的悲觀看法就已經有所改善,看好政策支持預期和銷售企穩的跡象。

花旗分析師預計,4月末的中央政治局會議預計對地產業提供“積極支持”。此前國務院總理李強要求推動房地產市場平穩健康發展。

最新數據顯示,在中美貿易爭端升級之前,中國3月份房價跌幅收窄。

花旗銀行不是唯一一家看好中國房地產投資機會的機構。

匯豐銀行分析師Michelle Kwok也表示: “低利率、供應緊張以及信貸正常化相互作用,形成了推動房地產市場結構性復甦的有利條件。”

地產行業迎增量政策窗口

24年“926”政治局會議提出“穩住樓市股市”,兩會政府工作報告首次把“穩住樓市股市”寫進總體要求。、

4月19日召開的國常會再次提到提出“持續推動房地產市場平穩健康發展”,釋放了穩定樓市的信號。而接下來,將要召開重要會議,地產政策預期有望再次發酵。

中郵證券研報指出,從基本面來看,新房成交量近幾周略有下滑,二手房掛牌價仍在下跌,行業仍在探底階段,但從歷史經驗來看,地產板塊上漲一般提前於基本面企穩,疊加近期地產增量政策預期較強,在4月底重要會議及關鍵措施落地前,地產板塊仍有望實現超額收益。

國金證券在4月20日發佈的報告中指出:“考慮到目前政府對於政策的態度爲儘快出手,預計在4月底或有一批新的地產刺激政策有望落地。”

華泰證券表示,4月22日,截至25Q1末的公募基金持倉數據公佈完畢。一季度申萬房地產指數以調整爲主,數據亦顯示公募基金地產股持倉市值環比有所下降,北向資金持倉環比亦有所下降。從持倉集中度的角度來看,機構對於地產股仍存在一定分化。

但進入二季度,我們認爲從多個角度來看,房地產行業正迎來增量政策窗口:前瞻數據已出現季節性回落,步入傳統的政策窗口期的同時,又迎來美國關稅超預期,我們認爲此時出臺增量政策具有較強的可能性和迫切性,後續應關注潛在增量政策出臺對板塊所帶來的投資機會。

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