港A房地產板塊聯袂上攻,房地產ETF基金、房地產ETF均漲1.7%
今日港A股房地產板塊大漲,A股南國置業、世聯行、渝開發、天府文旅、天保基建、大龍地產漲停,德必集團漲近9%。港股的金輝控股飆升66%,融信中國漲超15%,遠洋集團漲超11%,富力地產漲超9%,雅居樂、世茂集團漲超8%,龍光集團、融創中國、龍湖集團、旭輝漲超7%。
ETF方面,華夏基金房地產ETF基金、南方基金房地產ETF、華寶基金地產ETF和銀華基金房地產ETF分別漲1.78%、1.76%、1.28%和1.25%。

有市場人士指出,市場在憧憬即將於4月底召開的政治局會議上可能對房地產行業有積極引導。
市場普遍預期4月底召開的會議將釋放進一步支持房地產市場的信號,疊加央行近期通過 MLF 淨投放 5000 億元流動性,市場對降低房貸利率、優化限購政策等增量措施的期待升溫。這種政策預期直接提振了投資者對地產股的信心,推動房地產股上漲。
房地產行業基本面邊際改善,銷售與價格企穩信號顯現。3 月全國商品房銷售面積同比降幅收窄至 0.9%,一線城市二手房價格環比轉漲。
根據政府工作報告的安排,今年將實施更加積極有爲的宏觀政策,財政政策更加積極,貨幣政策適度寬鬆,適時降準降息,全方位擴大國內需求,促進房地產止跌回穩。上海證券認爲在政策刺激下,基建投資有望在“兩重”項目的推進下持續增長,房地產投資也有望改善,減少對固定資產投資的拖累。
此外,花旗分析師建議投資者增持中國地產股,認爲政策支持以及房企經營管理改善有望推動該行業盈利能力回升。
花旗分析師Griffin Chan和Cindy Li在週三的報告中寫道:“從未來兩年的投資視角來看,我們認爲當前正是增持中國地產股的好時機,因爲資產週轉率和定價的改善將推動股本回報率回升。”
目前A股有4只房地產ETF,規模最大的是南方基金房地產ETF,最新規模爲68.85億元,華夏基金房地產ETF基金規模緊隨其後,最新規模爲6.96億元。
從費率角度來看,四隻房地產ETF的管理費+託管費都是0.6%。
從資金角度來看,4月有3.33億元淨流入南方基金房地產ETF。

展望後市,地產行業今年一季度延續2024年四季度以來的企穩態勢,開發投資、到位資金、銷售等核心指標同比降幅持續收窄。據國新辦披露數據,從監測的40個重點城市來看,前兩個月新建商品房銷售面積和銷售金額同比分別增長了1.3%和7.1%。得益於專項債對土地收儲的支持及地方供給側調控,土地交易量持續低於商品房成交規模,住宅待售面積同比增速自2022年以來首次收窄至10%以內,有望在年內進入下降通道。隨着行業指標改善,國房景氣指數連續兩個月回升,房地產新模式轉型成效進一步顯現。
國常議指出要持續推動房地產市場平穩健康發展,強調我國房地產市場仍有很大發展空間,要進一步釋放市場潛力,着力推動“好房子”建設,加快構建房地產發展新模式,促進房地產市場平穩健康發展;收購存量商品房用作保障性住房是促進房地產市場止跌回穩、保障和改善民生的重要手段;強調推動政策早出手、快出手以積極影響預期。
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