大行評級|美銀:預計辦公軟件將保持穩健增長勢頭 首選金山軟件、中軟國際及金蝶國際
美銀證券發表報吿,該行覆蓋共15家的軟件與雲公司2024年業績參差不齊(包括盈利預警或初步業績),其中4家超出預期,2家符合預期,9家低於預期。總體而言,表現較強的公司主要從事辦公軟件或公有云業務,如金山軟件、金山辦公及金山雲,受益於AI收入貢獻的增加;而網絡安全和房地產軟件領域在2024年因下游客户IT預算疲軟而需求減弱。
展望未來,美銀證券預計辦公軟件將保持穩健的增長勢頭,得益於更多經常性收入、多元化的客户基礎和AI帶來的上行潛力。對於貿易緊張局勢,該行認為大多數軟件公司因專注國內市場且對技術供應鏈依賴有限,基本面影響較小;若軟件自給自足加速,甚至可能帶來上行機會。
考慮到增長可見度和估值上的風險回報比,該行首選的“買入”評級股票包括金山軟件、中軟國際及金蝶國際。美銀證券將金山軟件目標價由53港元下調至52港元,維持“買入”評級;金山雲H股目標價由5.7港元上調至6.8港元,評級“中性”。
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