研報掘金丨華源證券:首予聯想集團“增持”評級,三大業務持續AI轉型,PC換機週期下價值重估
華源證券研報指出,聯想集團(0992.SH)爲PC行業領導者,三大業務持續AI轉型。公司FY25Q1-Q3實現收入520.93億美元,核心業務分佈在三大集團:智能設備業務集團(IDG)、基礎設施方案業務集團(ISG)、方案服務業務集團(SSG),FY25財年第三財季收入佔比分別爲69%、20%、11%。該行指,PC換機週期已至,Windows10系統將於2025年10月停止服務,屆時仍有部分設備因硬件問題需替換,觀望消費者有望落地換機需求,公司或最先受益於本輪PC週期。另外,DeepSeek解決制約AIPC滲透關鍵問題。該行續指,商用PC需求或將成爲2025年PC主要增長引擎。根據IDC預測,2025年商用(除教育)領域PC出貨量將達到1.38億臺,同比增長4.3%。相較消費領域PC出貨量預測,商用領域PC表現更爲樂觀。AIPC需求或將通過培育用戶在辦公及學習場景下的使用習慣實現需求向消費端的滲透,或帶來新一輪消費PC放量。首次覆蓋,給予“增持”評級。
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