研報掘金丨招商證券:維持中國國航“增持”評級,有望實現收益水平企穩、盈利能力逐步回升
招商證券研報指出,中國國航(601111.SH)24年公司收入1667.0億元,同比+18.1%;歸母淨虧損2.4億元,同比減虧約8億元。增長主要來自國際航線的恢復和運價增長。以價換量、客收降幅較大,但受益於公司相對均衡的票價策略,公司收益跌幅略低於行業。受益油價下降,Q4淡季毛利轉正。展望25年,預計公司仍將受益於國際航班修復、油價下降、行業供需再平衡及自身運營效率提升,有望實現收益水平企穩、盈利能力逐步回升,我們預計公司 2025-27 年歸母淨利潤分別爲35//98/106億元。短期建議關注商務出行需求和國際航班恢復進度。長期來看,我們認爲公司以首都機場爲主的四角菱形機場樞紐覆蓋了中國經濟最發達、人口密度最高的區域,卡位優質核心樞紐,掌握北京兩艙市場主要客源,有望持續受益於商旅出行和國際長航線的修復。維持公司“增持”評級。
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